Southern California will trade a so-far balmy fall season for cooler temperatures and rain this weekend as a storm moves in and is expected to hit most areas Thursday or the morning of Friday, Nov. 14.
“This storm system that is coming in, will push inland by Saturday and when all is said and done some of these valley areas could see more than an inch total,” Adam Roser, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said.
Rain is expected in San Bernardino and Riverside counties on Thursday afternoon at the earliest and is expected to be in full force by Thursday night and early Friday morning.
The Inland Empire will see some winds start to increase on Thursday, 30-45 mph in most areas, but up to 50 mph in the mountains. Warm fall temperatures in the low 80s Wednesday will dip to cooler temperatures in the mid 70s and then low 60s as the rain moves in Thursday and Friday. Two to four inches of rain are expected in the San Bernardino mountain areas. There is a risk of localized flash flooding and increased risk of flooding in recent burn scars, Roser said.
Above 7,000 feet elevation will see snowfall. There may be a light accumulation around Big Bear, under an inch of rain or snow. In mountain areas, temperatures are expected to drop from around 60 degrees on Wednesday into the 40s as the storm moves into the weekend.
“Friday and Saturday will see temperatures, from the Inland Empire to the coast, much cooler than it has been,” he said.
Forest Falls resident Garth McGlasson, who has lived in areas of the San Bernardino Mountains including Running Springs and Big Bear for years, said he and his community are preparing for winter rains and snow, this weekend and always.
“We spend our existence up here gathering firewood, gathering sticks, gathering food.. We get our shovels out, because we know the county will take their time getting plows up,” he said.
Expecting rain later this week, the Forest Falls community is preparing for the possibility of mudslides and rock slides, which are common after precipitation. In October, a rainstorm and flash flooding triggered a mudslide that caused damage in Forest Falls and Oak Glen.
“It was insane. Upper canyon, I don’t think they suffered as much. Lower canyon got hit very hard, the county taking days to clear mud,” he said. “It was absolutely terrifying.”
Since the El Dorado fire in 2020, McGlasson says there has been a lack of vegetation in the area, resulting in nothing holding the ground together, resulting in rain impacting the area intensely.
At the Elkhorn General Store, where McGlasson has worked for the past four years, canned and frozen food and firewood are items they focus on keeping stocked well as inclement winter weather looms, from this week’s rainstorm to later in the season snow.
“Mountain people take care of each other,” he said.
In Orange County, inland areas will be hit with rain Thursday afternoon at the earliest. By Thursday night and early Friday morning the storm will have arrived and temperatures will drop from the low 70s on Wednesday and Thursday to the mid 60s on Friday and Saturday.
Coastal Orange County can expect breezy and rainy weather, with a particular potential for wind on Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures are expected to go from the high 60s to the low 60s and high 50s in coastal areas.
While the chance of rain decreases Sunday, the possibility for more showers is back in Southern California next Monday through Wednesday.
“It’s November, we’re starting to get into the rainy season, this looks like one of the first bigger winter storms of the season,” Roser said.
In Los Angeles, rain is expected to hit late Thursday into Friday morning, when the storm will peak, said Carol Smith, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
Mountain areas and the San Fernando Valley and foothill areas can expect the most rain, with two to four inches predicted. In the Valley, temperatures will drop from the mid 80s and 70s seen at the start of the week to the mid to high 60s as the storm makes its way to the area. Downtown, temperatures will drop from the low 70s to low 60s moving into Thursday and Friday. The coastal areas will shift from high to mid 60s to temperatures in the low 60s.
Through Sunday there is a low chance of thunderstorms, which bring heavier rain where they may hit.
Travel delays may happen with slick roads. Mudslides and rumbling rocks are a risk with the incoming wetter weather, especially in areas like Kanan Road and Malibu Canyon and flash flooding debris flow may happen in burn areas, Smith said.
Winds of 20-35 mph will blow through Los Angeles on Thursday and Friday. Mountainous areas of the county and the I-5 corridor may see speeds of 35-50 mph, Smith said.
The impending rain, especially in Los Angeles County, could extend into Saturday, with a possibility of showers continuing through Sunday and Monday.
“This season, we haven’t had much rain. This is a bigger storm,” Smith said. “It could be an extended period of rain. We had one storm earlier this season. This will be probably a little more rain than the last one, a little more impactful than the last one.”
If there is a lot of rain, particularly heavy rain or thunderstorms, it could affect any burn scar in the Southern California area.
This storm system has been difficult to forecast, but by Wednesday there may be higher confidence in data about the storm system, especially for Saturday and beyond, Lisa Phillips, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said.
“In general, we’re looking for higher rainfall rates and that is something that is possible with this storm,” Phillips said. “It’s a little harder to say whether we are going to hit those rates or not for LA County.”
But with chances of thunderstorms there is a possibility that burn scars, such as the Eaton and Palisades fire burn zones, will be affected.
“You can have problems with just general rain as well but I think in this case there is higher potential with the thunderstorms,” she said.
Edgar McGregor, a meteorologist and community activist in Altadena who warned residents to evacuate early as the Eaton fire burned through the area in January, is not concerned about this weekend’s storm impacting the Eaton burn zone, due to the lack of rain breaks expected with this system. A rain break is defined as heavy rain that stops for five or 10 minutes and then resumes again.
“From a meteorological perspective, I’m not really concerned about this storm at all,” he said.
Rain breaks that would concern him are not coming in, in fact a previous storm on Oct. 14 was more conducive to rain breaks and did not result in any major debris flow or mudslides in the area, McGregor said.
“We’ll probably see a little mud get down onto the streets in a few neighborhoods, maybe those folks right up against the mountains may see a bit of mud in their yards,” he said.
Many community members worry about rain and other weather hitting the area, or even another (unlikely, he says) wildfire, after the Eaton fire, but this storm at least, should not be dwelled on.
“This one is going to be a little longer lasting than other storms we’ve had. It’s always difficult to tell people not to worry because then they are not prepared..” he said.
If there is a storm of concern to the Eaton burn zone, McGregor says he will certainly warn the community.
“Don’t let your guard down, but at the same time, this is not a storm I would be fearful of,” he said.