Jack Carlisle is refusing to let the Trump administration’s tariffs ruin his 12-year-old business.
The owner of The Potting Shed in Orange’s historic downtown plaza is using everything he learned during the pandemic lockdowns to nail down his inventory ahead of anticipated price surges for imported goods.
“I’m not letting this get under my skin,” he said recently from his 8,000-square-foot storefront in the trendy downtown adjacent to Chapman University. “I’ve got to make good business decisions for my family and my customers,” said Carlisle.
For Carlisle, the tariffs bring to mind the Covid era when people took to gardening and making their homes more enjoyable.
“I can’t say for sure, but maybe we’re headed in that direction again, if pricing continues to rise on electronics, and cars and other things.”
Carlisle, who does over a $1 million in annual sales with his plants, pots, soil, candles and other houseware items, is like myriad other business owners scrambling to find new ways to get around the tariffs. Relationships with vendors forged over the years certainly helps.
One of his vendors, a Canadian-based ceramic pot maker, is holding inventory at “pre-tariff” prices in a warehouse in San Diego, hoping that the tariff war eventually blows over.
“The tariffs are actually making me a kind of leaner, meaner machine,” Carlisle said. “I’m choosing my buying a lot more carefully. I’m working with some of these relationships that I’ve built over my 12 years in business to create solutions so that this can work for all of us,” Carlisle said.
Also see: ‘Nowhere to turn’: Small businesses dependent on imports from China are feeling more desperate
Business owners in Southern California are rethinking how to replace foreign-made products from Canada, China and Mexico and avoid paying for the new tariffs, most of which were imposed April 2.
The National Retail Federation expects U.S. imports to plunge by at least 20% in the second half of 2025 if the higher tariffs remain in place — including a minimum 10% tariff applied universally. The ports complex in Long Beach and Los Angeles is bracing for a dip in cargo because of the new tariffs, especially from China, where imports are getting hit with fees that are 145% higher.
Small aerospace manufacturing shops from Orange to El Segundo are struggling with the tariffs targeting aluminum extrusions and aircraft hose assemblies. The administration imposed 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum on all countries, increasing costs for U.S. manufacturers and putting them at a disadvantage to their global competitors.
Family-run businesses — like The Potting Shed — are struggling to minimize pricing impacts on everything from hotel furniture to forgings, and keep their shops humming while they wait for hesitant customers to buy.
Surprise tariffs
Still, some small businesses are reeling from the tariffs.
An office chair maker in Torrance uses a components suppliers in China that raised prices to cover the 145% in tariffs.
Aura Seating, which recently opened a small factory along the eastern shores of Lake Michigan in Sheboygan, Wisconsin, already laid off half of its 16-person workforce in California, according to Minal Mondkar, founder and CEO of the 15-year-old company.
“We get some components from overseas, mainly from China. Earlier this year, we had a 25% tariff, and we were managing that. Then it became 145%. For a small business to swallow this, it’s not the easiest thing,” she said. “It’s like a ripple effect.”
The business, which sells high-end chairs to hotels, resorts and casinos, had $3.8 million worth of orders canceled due to the climbing costs.
“Our customers are saying that maybe it will be another quarter before they can even look at buying those products, because they are not making any money,” she said. “I don’t want to let go of any more employees, but it’s going to be difficult if I don’t get these orders in another quarter. I’m not saying I’ll close down, but it’ll be really difficult for me to sustain myself and all these employees.”
Gloomy times
Some small manufacturers feel the tariffs are just another crushing wave.
Last fall, a family-run metal forging company that manufactures aluminum parts for Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft got stung when 33,000 machinists went on strike. A supply chain shakeup led to cuts in workers and a reduction in work days. Independent Forge Co. Inc. in Orange recovered after the strike was settled.
Now, with the tariffs, the company is seeing tough times again, according to Andrew Flores, Independent Forge president.
“It’s mainly our schedules that are being impacted,” Flores said. “There’s been a lot of adjustments made by Boeing and a lot of other companies that are looking at the tariffs. We’ve seen a decrease in activity from our overseas customers. It’s very gloomy.”
Also see: Trump tariffs rattle small business owners already dealing with tight margins
The company creates designs for metal products and machine parts, with molds filled with aluminum placed into super-heated presses.
On the Boeing 737 Max, the company’s parts are used as hangers to hold engines in place, or make locks for door mechanisms. Independent Forge also makes components for the F/A-18 fighter aircraft, like a part for the flight control system needed to manually override the controller on the rear rudder in emergency situations.
“A lot of our customers are trying to lock down pricing so that they can continue to keep that pricing in case the items they need shoot through the roof,” he said. “And we’re trying to avoid keeping long-term agreements because we don’t know where the metals market is going to end up. Everyone is just bracing themselves for what’s going to happen next. Basically, everybody’s trying to hold off on placing any orders.”
Price increases
Randy Herber, president of Herber Aircraft Co. Inc., said that he is seeing larger vendors hesitate before placing orders for parts with his small El Segundo-based aerospace business.
“We’re watching it to make sure it’s not a sustained, long-term thing, verus a hesitation, or a pause,” he said. “This is different from an order never being placed. We feel right now it’s more of a hesitation, and they will still place the order and everything will be delayed a month or two.”
Herber’s business manufactures, repairs, distributes and performs light assembly of wire harnesses and hoses on civilian and military aircraft.
The harness side of the business is unfazed by tariffs because the company buys its metals and performs its own manufacturing in the U.S. However, Herber does see hose assemblies being affected by added costs from tariffs and surcharges because of its international customer base.
His largest aerospace customers, Eaton Corp. plc, a power management company in Dublin, Ireland, and Lord Corp., a North Carolina unit of Parker Hannifin Corp., each passed along price increases caused by the tariffs or added surcharges.
“The unknowns behind the tariffs are the biggest issue, not the actual tariffs,” Herber said. “We have not been affected by anything yet, but manufacturers we distribute for are trying to figure out how to deal with them and pass them along to us.”
Duty-free zones
Not everyone is claiming hardship.
Lily Jack, an Inglewood-based hospitality furniture maker with access to factory space in Inglewood, Mexico and Vietnam — and certain component parts that are made in China and shipped to Vietnam or Mexico directly — isn’t “materially affected by tariffs,” explained Jeffery Sears, the company chairman.
This is because Lily Jack’s products qualify to be moved duty-free under the Trump administration’s free trade agreement with Mexico, where the company has established a Latin America subdivision.
The duty-free United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement on July 1, 2020. USMCA compliance depends on the complexity of a company’s supply chain, but the rules to qualify can be as simple as attaining a country of origin certification from a supplier.
“The way our manufacturing is set up, we have a way to deal with the tariffs in a special way,” Sears said.
The U.S. has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries, including Vietnam. The U.S. initially threatened a 46% tariff on imports from the Southeast Asian nation in early April, a move that was later temporarily suspended.
“It’s impossible for businesses to plan because the one thing a government shouldn’t do is create uncertainty,” Sears said. “I feel badly for companies in other industries, and quite frankly, even our competition at times, because how do you make a big decision. You don’t know what tomorrow brings, even based upon what was said the day before. There’s no business person brilliant enough to be able to guess right every day.”
Meanwhile, Marianne Syzmanski, an adjunct professor of entrepreneurship at USC Marshall School of Business, sees a silver lining to the tariffs.
“I think the tariffs are making mom-and-pops think a little bit outside the box, and that’s not a bad thing,” said “There’s a chance that some businesses pivot and start looking at another competitive product, or alternative idea to save money.”
“We’re going to know by Christmastime, whatever we’re buying our kids, that it may cost a little more,” she said. “It’s a perfect opportunity for consumers to realize that we actually could use less, and we don’t need to keep buying so much stuff.”
