A preview and prediction for each of the top Orange County football playoff games this week. The teams are listed by their ranking in the Orange County Top 25.
GAME OF THE WEEK
NO. 1 SANTA MARGARITA (8-3) VS. NO. 4 ORANGE LUTHERAN (3-8)
Where, when: Orange Coast College, Friday, 7 p.m.
Live coverage: Spectrum News1
Analysis: Santa Margarita beat Orange Lutheran 28-7 in a Trinity League game on Oct. 24. So, Orange Lutheran cannot possibly win this CIF-SS Division 1 semifinal. Right? Wrong. Orange Lutheran lost to St. John Bosco 48-0 in a league game, but then defeated the Braves 20-19 in the Division 1 quarterfinals last week. That’s high school sports – anything can happen. That could also apply to Santa Margarita, which had 21-9 win last week over then-undefeated Sierra Canyon. In that Eagles win over the Lances on Oct. 24, Santa Margarita senior receiver Trent Mosley (USC commit) had 10 receptions for 100 yards and ran for two touchdowns. Santa Margarita linebacker Dash Fifita, an Arizona commit, returned a fumble 36 yards for a touchdown, and Ryan Carpenter returned a blocked punt 27 yards for a touchdown. The punt was blocked by senior safety Siua Holani, who also had a team-high 11 tackles in that game. Freshman Ezrah Brown was Orange Lutheran’s starting quarterback in that game. Reagan Toki was the starter last week in the win over St. John Bosco. Toki completed 7 of 11 passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns with an interception on a rainy night. Sean Morris rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Junior linebacker Anthony McClure had a team-high 12 total tackles. Sophomore defensive back King Johnson returned an interception 66 yards for a touchdown. As for this rematch, the combination of Mosley’s offensive versatility and Santa Margarita’s defense equals an Eagles win.
Winner: Santa Margarita
NO. 2 MATER DEI (8-2) VS. CORONA CENTENNIAL (10-1)
Where, when: Centennial High, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: Here is another Division 1 semifinal that is a rematch of a regular-season game. Mater Dei lost to Centennial 43-36 on Sept. 12 at Centennial. The Monarchs lost seven turnovers that led to 30 points for the Huskies. Centennial had a 28-0 lead in the first quarter and led at halftime, 33-7. Mater Dei battled back and led briefly 36-33. The deciding play of the game came with 1:51 remaining in the fourth quarter. Centennial defensive back Jaden Walk-Green and Mater Dei receiver Kayden Dixon-Wyatt both went up for a deep pass and both had their hands on the ball as they descended and hit the turf. Officials ruled that Walk-Green had possession, ending the Mater Dei drive. Mater Dei rushed for only 79 yards on 25 carries in that game. Centennial rushed for 234 yards on 51 carries and dominated time of possession: 33:17 to Mater Dei’s 14:43. The Monarchs were better in both categories in last week’s 20-0 win over Mission Viejo. Mater Dei outrushed Mission Viejo, 210-75. Kennie Leggett rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Justin Lewis rushed for 79 yards on eight attempts. Mater Dei’s 36-31 road win over St. John Bosco on Oct. 31 seems to have corrected the Monarchs’ path. There might be no stopping them now.
Winner: Mater Dei
NO. 7 LOS ALAMITOS (10-2) VS. MURRIETA VALLEY (9-3
Where, when: Murrieta Valley High, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: Los Alamitos did everything right in a 35-10 win over San Juan Hills last week in the Division 2 quarterfinals. The Griffins attacked and swarmed on defense, they committed only two penalties for 15 yards and they put the football in the hands of Lenny Ibarra. Ibarra ran for four touchdowns and gained 121 yards on 14 carries. He also caught three passes and made five tackles on defense. Kamden Tillis rushed for 128 yards on 20 carries for Los Alamitos. Murrieta Valley leaned heavily on its running game, too, last week in a 26-6 win over Rancho Cucamonga. Murrieta Valley threw only two passes in the rainy conditions. Jacob Tadd rushed for 127 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Murrieta Valley opened the playoffs with a 35-14 win over Corona del Mar. Murrieta Valley’s defense has what it takes to limit Ibarra’s effectiveness.
Winner: Murrieta Valley
NO. 6 SAN CLEMENTE (8-4) VS. LEUZINGER (10-1)
Where, when: Leuzinger High, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: San Clemente has been a great team lately. After a 34-16 Alpha League loss to Mission Viejo, the Tritons beat Los Alamitos 28-9 and Edison 10-9 to finish the regular season. They then beat Beaumont 38-21 in the first round of the Division 2 playoffs and Vista Murrieta 32-7 last week in the quarterfinals. There has been some strong defense played by San Clemente during that run. In the win over Vista Murrieta, Thomas Alexander returned an interception 80 yards for a touchdown, Jaxon Rex returned an interception 37 yards for a touchdown and Patrick Norman recovered a fumble and ran 87 yards with it for a touchdown. Carson Sloan rushed for 137 yards and a touchdown. Leuzinger went 5-0 in the Bay League. The Olympians’ loss was to JSerra. They beat Crean Lutheran 34-17 in the Division 2 first round and Chaparral 19-16 in the quarterfinals. Journee Tonga rushed for 212 yards on 20 carries in the win over Chaparral. With rain in the forecast for Friday, Tonga can be expected to get the ball plenty of times. Turnovers were prevalent in last Friday’s rainy games. San Clemente showed last week it is good at causing them.
Winner: San Clemente
NO. 14 EDISON (7-5) VS. PALOS VERDES (9-3)
Where, when: Palos Verdes High, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: Edison defeated Palos Verdes 21-20 on Sept. 12 at Palos Verdes High. That was an afternoon game. The Palos Verdes on-campus stadium does not have permanent lights. Temporary lights are set up for playoff games. In that Sept. 12 game, Edison rushed for only 32 yards on 13 carries. In last week’s 9-7 road win over Inglewood, Maddox Thomas rushed for 83 yards on 19 carries and Anthony Godinez rushed for 42 yards on eight carries. Edison quarterback Sam Thomson, who was outstanding in the Chargers’ first-round win over Huntington Beach, threw a screen pass to Thomas for a 5-yard touchdown with 17 seconds remaining. Thomson was 5 for 7 for 41 yards on the winning drive. Teo Hampton’s interception with eight seconds left sealed the victory. The win over Inglewood increased Edison’s playoffs winning streak to eight games, a streak that includes six playoff wins last season when the Chargers won CIF Southern Section and CIF State championships. Palos Verdes won CIF-SS and CIF State titles last year, too. The Sea Kings have won five in a row since a 40-14 Bay League loss to Division 2 semifinalist Leuzinger. Edison beat Huntington Beach 31-19 with a strong offensive showing. The Chargers beat Inglewood largely because of their defense. Like Edison did in last year’s playoffs, and as the Chargers have done in this year’s playoffs, Edison finds a way to win.
Winner: Edison
Fryer last week: 4-1
Fryer for the season: 47-18