A preview and prediction for each of the top football playoff games in Orange County this week. The teams are listed by their ranking in the Orange County Top 25.
GAME OF THE WEEK
NO. 1 MISSION VIEJO (9-1) VS. NO. 3 MATER DEI (7-2)
Where, when: Santa Ana Stadium, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: Mater Dei’s win over St. John Bosco two weeks ago changed the way the CIF-SS Division 1 playoffs look. It had appeared that St. John Bosco was far and away the best team in the division, as well as the state, with maybe Sierra Canyon or Santa Margarita a semi-distant second. But then here comes Mater Dei. It beat St. John Bosco 36-21 on Halloween and on the Braves’ home turf, too. It helped to have mega-talented receiver Chris Henry Jr., who had five receptions for 213 yards and two touchdowns, return to action. Senior quarterback Ryan Hopkins played the way he did in 2024 for JSerra, completing 13 of 21 passes for 295 yards and five touchdowns. Mission Viejo has the best quarterback in the county in senior Luke Fahey, who like Henry has committed to Ohio State. Fahey has completed 75 percent of his passes for an average of 311 yards a game with 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Making Fahey’s numbers more impressive is that two-time All-County receiver Vance Spafford has not played much this season due to an illness and injury. Jack Junker, a transfer from Santa Margarita, has become Fahey’s No. 1 target with 57 receptions for 1,129 yards (second-most in O.C.) and 14 touchdowns. Diablos receivers KJ Woodbury, a sophomore, and junior Luke Karby have contributed, too. Mater Dei has an outstanding defense and, as usual, is especially good in the secondary. UCLA-committed senior cornerback CJ Lavender has seven interceptions. A lockdown defensive backfield and front-line pressure on Fahey, and more Hopkins-to-Henry activity, could be enough to send the Monarchs to the semifinals. If the forecast is accurate and it rains Friday night, that could work in Mater Dei’s favor, too, as the Monarchs have a big offensive line and a solid running game.
Winner: Mater Dei
NO. 4 SERVITE (6-4) VS. CORONA CENTENNIAL (9-1)
Where, when: Centennial High, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: This Division 1 quarterfinal is a rematch of the season opener for both teams. Centennial beat Servite 42-14 on Aug. 22. Centennial senior quarterback Dominick Catalano was hot, completing 24 of 38 passes for 330 yards and four touchdowns. The Huskies also rushed for 221 yards. Servite struggled in every category. Servite is a far more steady team now, which it showed in a 30-28 win over Orange Lutheran to conclude the regular season. The defense has been Servite’s best unit. Senior safety Tristan Real had 10 solo tackles in the Orange Lutheran game. Servite, which could be missing a couple of key players because of injury, sometimes pulls off victories no sane person could see coming. The challenge for Servite in this game will be keeping pace with a Centennial offense that is averaging 49 points a game.
Winner: Centennial
NO. 1 SANTA MARGARITA (7-3) VS. SIERRA CANYON (10-0)
Where, when: Sierra Canyon High, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: Visions of a high-flying, passing-led offense filled the mind when Carson Palmer was named coach at Santa Margarita. Alas, the Eagles’ strength is their terrific defense that features senior linebackers Dash Fifita, who committed to Arizona, and Sacramento State-committed Leki Holani. The Eagles held Mission Viejo to seven points and Mater Dei to six points. Their offense got a huge boost when USC-committed senior receiver Trent Mosley got healthy in October. He has 30 receptions for 255 yards in his five games, and he has six rushing touchdowns but no receiving touchdowns. Sierra Canyon has speed galore, especially on defense where that advantage can be most effective. The Trailblazers have allowed only four points per game. They beat two Trinity League teams, JSerra 35-0 and Orange Lutheran 41-9. Sierra Canyon has 45 sacks in 10 games. Leading that crew is edge rusher Richard Wesley, a senior who committed to Texas. Wesley has 8.5 sacks. Seniors Mikhal Johnson and Jonah Nadley have eight sacks each. This shapes up as a low-scoring game, with rain perhaps making a contribution. This game comes down to which of the two strong defenses will be the most disruptive.
Winner: Sierra Canyon
NO. 10 SAN JUAN HILLS (2-9) VS. NO. 8 LOS ALAMITOS (9-2)
Where, when: Veterans Stadium, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: San Juan Hills had to forfeit seven wins in the regular season and got into the Division 2 playoffs as an at-large entrant. A team that forfeits 90 percent of the season for using an ineligible player will catch some grief. Maybe San Juan Hills used that as “everyone hates us” energy. Whatever, the Stallions advanced to the quarterfinals with a 28-27 win over Downey, which went into the game 9-1. Kyle Donahue kicked a 23-yard field goal in the closing seconds for the Stallions’ winning points. Los Alamitos also went the comeback route in its 35-28 first-round win over Yorba Linda. The Griffins trailed by 14 points. Los Alamitos senior Lenny Ibarra is the handyman of Orange County football. He can do anything. Ibarra scored two touchdowns, on a run and a reception, in the second half against Yorba Linda and sealed the victory with an interception in the end zone in the final seconds. He also led the team in tackles. Los Alamitos has plenty of skill elsewhere, enough to beat San Juan Hills and move on to next week’s semifinals.
Winner: Los Alamitos
FULLERTON (9-2) VS. BECKMAN (8-3)
Where, when: Tustin High, Friday, 7 p.m.
Analysis: This Division 8 quarterfinal is another rematch. Beckman beat Fullerton 34-14 in a Lambda League game on Oct. 3. Beckman’s defense shut out Fullerton in the second half. Beckman senior running back Makhy Czaykowski rushed for 165 yards and four touchdowns and averaged 12 yards a carry. Patriots senior quarterback Noah Nam threw for 200 yards and a touchdown. Beckman finished 5-0 in league. The Patriots carry a seven-game winning streak into this game, including a 41-21 win over La Mirada in the first round. Fullerton won its four league games after the loss to Beckman and beat La Quinta — the one in the desert — 38-21 last week in the first round of the playoffs. Fullerton’s Evan Tellez-Soria scored on runs of 19 and 37 yards and on defense he had an interception and a fumble recovery. The HSratings.com figures that are are used to place teams in playoff divisions: Fullerton’s rating is 7.4, Beckman’s is 5.8, although Beckman beat Fullerton by 20 points and was the league champion. Interesting. But being a fan of history …
Winner: Beckman
Fryer last week: 4-1
Fryer for the season: 43-17