If there’s one thing both sides of the aisle can agree on when it comes to plans underway in California to change congressional boundaries ahead of the 2026 midterms, it’s that the new maps are a bit much to digest.
The proposed new congressional maps for California districts were unveiled Friday evening, proposed to state legislators by the campaign arm for House Democrats. These suggested maps make sweeping changes to some districts, but for others, the tweaks — meant to counter proposed partisan redistricting in other, Republican-controlled states — are a bit more regional.
The maps create several domino-effect changes in the effort to reduce the number of California’s 52 congressional seats with a majority of registered Republican voters from nine (currently) to four (proposed), said Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist in Southern California who has experience with redistricting.
“That’s shaken up the entire map,” Trujillo said. “Whether you’re in a safe seat, swing seat, whatever — things have wiggled in a way that might be uncomfortable for some communities.”
Noticeably, the proposed changes would split Orange County among eight congressional districts, rather than six as it is now. Two of those proposed districts — the 38th District and 41st District — would mostly encompass communities to the north in Los Angeles County while picking up a few of OC’s cities.
Remember, these proposed changes aren’t final. There are still several boxes that need to be checked before these new districts would be implemented for congressional elections in 2026, 2028 and 2030.
First, the mid-cycle partisan redistricting is “triggered” by a Republican-led state moving forward with plans for similar — but other side of the aisle — congressional map redos. Attention has largely been on Texas, where President Donald Trump has said the GOP is “entitled to five more seats.”
State legislators in Sacramento also have to agree to these proposed maps — and the Democratic majority is already teed up to do so this week. They will then put the maps before California voters in a special election in November, who will have the final OK.
But for now, as these new congressional maps are still being “digested,” here’s a look at what could change in Orange County — and what’s at stake.
‘Surfboard congressmember’
Rep. Robert Garcia may need to trade in some comic books for a surfboard if the proposed maps are implemented, Trujillo joked.
California’s 42nd Congressional District, represented now by Garcia, a former Long Beach mayor, could swivel down to pick up more coastal areas, including Orange County’s Huntington Beach and Newport Beach. In addition, the district would include Costa Mesa and part of southern Santa Ana.
The 42nd District now snakes north and inland, picking up Bellflower, Commerce, Downey, Huntington Park and Lakewood.
Adding the more conservative Orange County cities to a fairly blue district for Garcia earned the congressman some praise from Trujillo.
“If the mandate was to draw a map to neutralize Texas, it meant that seats that were safe (for the) Dems were going to pick up Republican precincts,” said Trujillo.
This will still be a relatively safe seat for Garcia, Trujillo predicted, but the new district could be ripe for a credible Republican challenger who could make re-election for Garcia — or election for a different Democratic candidate — tougher.
“We all have to do our part, and I’m looking forward to repping OC,” Garcia said in a post on X. “The seat is solid blue, has over D+10 registration and Kamala Harris won it by over 13 points. Excited to represent LBC, Signal Hill, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa & South Santa Ana.”
Still, it’d be an uphill battle for a Republican. According to the proposed maps, the new district would still be comprised of 40% of registered Democratic voters, along with 30% Republican and 28% who are registered no party preference or other.
And it changes messaging strategy, said Andrew Clark, a Republican strategist who has experience with congressional campaigns in Orange County.
“Republicans here campaign on keeping failed L.A.-style policies out of Orange County,” Clark said. “These new maps pack red parts of Orange County directly into deep blue parts of L.A. County.”
“The optics of liberal L.A.-style Democrats like Robert Garcia parachuting down into Orange County asking for votes would create a unique messaging angle for Republican campaigns to capitalize on and add a new element to the race that we haven’t usually seen,” Clark added.
“Congressman Robert Garcia … welcome to Huntington Beach,” Matt Rexroad, an attorney and Republican redistricting consultant, posted on social media.
“That should be fun for all involved.”
A potential R-on-R showdown?
One way to cut out Republican seats is by smooshing some of them together.
That seems to be what the proposed maps do to districts represented by Reps. Young Kim, R-Anaheim Hills, and Ken Calvert, R-Corona.
The newly proposed 40th Congressional District is only one of the four congressional districts that would have a majority of registered Republican voters.
The 40th District now includes Mission Viejo, Villa Park and Yorba Linda, along with communities in western Riverside and San Bernardino counties, and is represented by Kim.
But the newly drawn one shifts the district more eastward, losing Orange County’s Aliso Viejo and Lake Forest and picking up Menifee, Wildomar and parts of Corona — areas represented by Calvert. (The district also picks up Murrieta, which is part of GOP Rep. Darrell Issa’s current district.)
Both Kim and Calvert — who have launched re-election bids prior to these redistricting efforts — have decried the proposed maps and vowed to challenge them.
There’s the possibility, with the way these maps are drawn, that the two could end up both running for the 40th District.
“Rep. Kim plans to run for re-election and is focused on delivering results for her community as she stands up against Sacramento’s unconstitutional power grab,” said Callie Strock, a spokesperson for Kim’s campaign.
A spokesperson for Calvert’s campaign didn’t immediately return a request for comment.
Shoring up the blue votes
Two of Orange County’s most closely watched congressional races in 2024 would have a stronger presence of registered Democratic voters if the proposed maps are adopted.
California’s 45th Congressional District — which flipped from red to blue last year — would include 39% Democratic-registered voters, compared to 30% Republicans and 30% those registered no party preference or something else.
Registered Democrats now make up nearly 37% of registered voters in the district that Rep. Derek Tran narrowly won in 2024, along with 33% registered Republicans and 25% no party preference.
And the changes made to California’s 47th Congressional District would create a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans, 36% to 32%. Those registered no party preference or other would account for 31%.
As of the latest tally by the secretary of state, the current 47th District, represented by Rep. Dave Min, has slightly more registered Republicans (35%) than Democrats (34%), along with 24% no party preference.
Breaking up is hard to do
Several Orange County cities are split among two — and sometimes three — congressional districts under these proposals.
Both Fullerton and Santa Ana are split into thirds.
A small portion of Fullerton would be included in California’s 41st Congressional District, which mostly encompasses communities in Los Angeles County, as well as the 45th District and 46th District, according to data shared with the Southern California News Group.
Data shows Santa Ana splitting between California’s 45th and 46th districts as well, with a small portion of the southern part of the city included in the 42nd District, the district that would span the coast from Long Beach to Newport Beach.
Carlos Perea, a Santa Ana resident and executive director of the Harbor Institute for Immigrant and Economic Justice, said he has mixed feelings about putting redistricting on the ballot in November.
“I hate to say it, we need to fight fire with fire,” he said of California fighting redistricting efforts in Republican states. “But there’s also the contradiction of politicians essentially choosing their voters.”
At stake, he said, is Santa Ana’s political influence. The city is the largest in its current congressional district and “carries an outsize influence on our congressional representative,” Perea said. Redrawing the boundaries, he added, “essentially dilutes in many ways, the impact we have as a larger city in one congressional seat.”
Meanwhile, parts of Newport Beach would break between California’s 42nd Congressional District and the 47th District, which would be redrawn to still include Irvine and Laguna Beach but pick up Dana Point.
And Mission Viejo would also be divided, part of it in that new 47th District and the other in the 40th District.
“Orange County’s cities are sliced and diced in ways that only a power-hungry partisan could love,” said former Newport Beach Mayor Will O’Neill, who leads Orange County’s Republican Party.
Staff writer Hanna Kang contributed to this report.