With all the changes California’s mid-cycle redistricting maneuvers brought to congressional districts this year, one nestled in Orange County and the Inland Empire is considered still to be a safe seat for Republicans to control.
The question for California’s 40th Congressional District, though, is: Which Republican?
But first, there is the June primary, and the race for the 40th Congressional District has attracted a bevy of candidates, including both incumbent Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim.
And as the period for those to file to run for the seat nears a close, the race is beginning to take shape and it’s peppered with question marks.
There are enough “politically homeless” voters who might have an outsized say in determining who battles it out for the 40th Congressional District in the fall, political experts say.
With about two months to go until registered California voters begin to receive their ballots in the mail, the contest for the 40th is projected to be “fairly safe” for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
Should this congressional district have existed in 2024, President Donald Trump would have won it by 12 points, according to the Cook Political Report’s election analysis.
More than 40% of registered voters in the district are registered Republicans, whereas 31% are registered Democrats and 21% are no party preference, according to the latest data from the California secretary of state.
That’s enough Republican voters, perhaps, to propel both Calvert and Kim through the primary.
“The focus has been on Calvert and Kim for good reason,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.
“Unless one or the other breaks through in a very dominant fashion, and it looks unlikely at this point, it’s going to be two Republicans who make it through the primary,” Schnur said.
The threshold for a Democratic contender lowers, though, if Calvert or Kim starts to pull away.
Still, they’ll need momentum and money to be successful in the primary, experts said.
And that momentum wasn’t exactly found at the recent California Democratic Party convention, where the state party declined to make an endorsement.
Three candidates representing different factions of the party — art dealer Esther Kim Varet, retired fire captain Joe Kerr and attorney Lisa Ramirez — qualified for endorsement vote, but none cleared the 60% threshold needed to get the party’s backing. Although with nearly 53%, Ramirez came close.
Those three have different bases of support and fundraising capabilities, said Marcia Godwin, an expert in politics who teaches at the University of La Verne.
They also launched their candidacies before redistricting and have had time to establish their campaigns.
“There’s a very real possibility they can split the Democratic vote, and then we’d have two Republicans advance,” Godwin said.
When it comes to money, Kim Varet has a bit of an edge. She has $1.16 million cash on hand, according to the latest reports from the Federal Election Commission. Ramirez, meanwhile, has about $81,000, and Kerr does not have any data reported with the FEC.
Another question in the race: Could an independent candidate be successful in the primary while two incumbent Republicans battle it out?
Like Kim Varet, Kerr and Ramirez, Nina Linh also entered the race for the 40th District before redistricting. And like them, she entered as a Democratic contender.
But after the election, Linh changed her party affiliation to run as an independent.
She said her change was reflective of a growing sense of disillusionment voters feel with either the Democratic or Republican parties.
“People are exhausted by the divisiveness, the hyper-partisanship and the endless blame games that put power before people,” Linh said at the time. “Gerrymandering, shutdowns and political theater have stripped citizens of their voice and left the most vulnerable behind. I’m done with the partisanship. I’m putting people first.”
It’s historically been an uphill battle for an independent candidate to emerge victorious, but Schnur said Linh could be competitive depending on how much money she can raise.
“There are a good number of Republicans who are disillusioned by and might not be all that excited by either Calvert or Kim. There are a significant number of Democrats who don’t have an obvious avenue for them either,” Schnur said.
“If Linh can raise enough money to get herself known to those two groups, she could have a fighting chance to get herself second in the runoff,” he added. “There are a lot of potentially politically homeless voters in this race, but Linh needs the financial support to make them aware that there may be another option.”
Linh has about $114,000 cash on hand, per the latest FEC data.
Still, political experts said, it’s relatively early days in the campaign cycle, and additional candidates could enter the race before the filing deadline, or some could exit.
“At this point, it’s still early,” Godwin said, “and it’s difficult to predict with the two incumbent members of Congress in it, if one will put out enough to shut the other out.”
In other words, the race is on.