California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President J.D. Vance are the early White House favorites for their respective parties.
That’s according to a new poll conducted by Emerson College, which was commissioned by KTLA parent company Nexstar Media for The Hill and Inside California Politics.
Registered voters in California were asked to make their early picks for potential candidates in the 2028 presidential election, as well as provide feedback on other issues relevant to their priorities for the state.
Looking at 2028, with President Donald Trump constitutionally prohibited from being elected again due to the 22nd Amendment, there are already some well-known contenders for both of the nation’s two largest political parties.
For Republicans, current Vice President and former Ohio Senator J.D. Vance is the odds-on favorite to secure the nomination. Vance has 40% support among Republicans who participated in the poll, four times that of his fellow Trump Administration colleague in Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Vance, who was originally a stark opponent of Trump’s presidency, now seems the most likely to succeed him atop the GOP.
Polling second among Republicans, Kennedy previously sought the Democratic Party’s nomination in 2024, which was essentially uncontested in favor of the incumbent Joe Biden, before ultimately leading to then-Vice President Kamala Harris being chosen by the party after Biden bowed out.
Kennedy continued to run as an independent until August 2024, at which point he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump. The environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist has never been elected to major political office.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis comes in third among Republican voters with about 9% support in the Emerson College poll.
DeSantis was once thought to be the most serious challenger to Trump during the Republican primaries, but ended up dropping out of the race and endorsing his longtime rival after failing to collect a single primary victory and a blowout loss in the Iowa Caucus.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the political spectrum, a handful of high-profile figures have emerged as early favorites for the Democrats.
At the top of the list, according to survey respondents, is California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Newsom is in the final year of his final term as California’s governor. An outspoken critic of the Trump Administration, often utilizing social media to provide unfiltered retorts to the president’s agenda, Newsom’s profile has been particularly elevated after Trump took office for a second time.
Newsom has clashed with the president over his administration’s unprecedented immigration enforcement operations in Southern California, fought back on the federal government’s rollback of environmental regulations and abortion rights protections, and orchestrated his own political ploys to combat the MAGA agenda in the Golden State, including recently with a proposal to redraw congressional districts.
The governor has also had moments of diplomacy with the president, particularly in the wake of the deadly wildfires that ravaged Los Angeles County in January, and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first Trump presidency.
Newsom is currently leading the field of presumptive Democratic candidates with 23% support among registered voters in California.
Those same survey respondents were also asked if they approve or disapprove of Newsom’s overall job performance, with 44% saying they approve, while 38% say they disapprove. Trump, meanwhile, received a 30% job approval rating, and a 58% disapproval rating among California voters, according to pollsters.
Another familiar face atop the list of potential contenders is former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. “Mayor Pete” is polling at 17% among registered voters and is considered a serious player in 2028.
Buttigieg previously sought the office of the presidency in 2020, winning the most delegates in that year’s Iowa Caucus and taking second in the New Hampshire primary before losing momentum and suspending his campaign. He was named Biden’s Secretary of Transportation, and considered to wield some of the most influence in the history of the cabinet position following the passage of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.
If chosen as the nominee for the Democrats, Buttigieg would become the first openly gay presidential candidate among the nation’s major political parties.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who says she has no intentions of running for Governor of California, has yet to rule out a potential third go at the presidency. Currently, Harris has 11% support among voters who participated in the Emerson College poll.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, arguably the party’s biggest rising star, garnered 9% support in the poll. Ocasio-Cortez, 35, would likely be the youngest candidate in the field, should she choose to seek the nomination. She already holds the title as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress, representing New York’s 14th District, which includes parts of Queens and the Bronx.
Among the priorities for California voters, the economy remains the top issue for 30%, down from 40% in an April poll. Housing and affordability are the biggest issues for 19% of voters, and immigration is at 15%, up from 7% in April. “Threats to democracy” is the biggest issue for 13% of voters, and health care was the top response for 8%.
On the topic of immigration, 60% of California voters are against the mass deportations of undocumented immigrants in the state, consistent with April’s figures.
Other issues affecting California that were discussed in the poll included how much the state spends on firefighting staffing and equipment, and whether or not Los Angeles is an appropriate venue for the 2028 Summer Olympics and Paralympics.
For additional information about the Emerson College poll, including methodology and other survey responses, click here.