Former Vice President Kamala Harris has announced she has no intentions to run for California’s governorship. It’s a significant development for the state’s political picture after previous polling showed she was the odds-on favorite by a wide margin.
So, with Harris opting to sit out instead of participate in another high-stakes race, what does the rest of the field look like in 2026?
According to new polling data from Emerson College, the field is about as wide open as can be.
The latest poll, commissioned by KTLA parent company Nexstar Media for The Hill and Inside California Politics, included responses from hundreds of registered voters in California to gain insight on their feelings heading into the June 2026 primary.
With Gov. Gavin Newsom termed out, and now equipped with the knowledge that Harris, a California native, would not be on the ballot, the survey reveals that it’s anybody’s race, with only two candidates holding particularly convincing leads.
Among them, the top Democrat in the race is former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter.
Porter, who opted not to seek re-election in an effort to become California’s U.S. senator, a position later secured by Adam Schiff, announced her bid for the Governor’s Mansion in March, and by all accounts is the person to beat on the Democrat side.
In April, when Harris was dominating the potential field of candidates, Porter garnered around 12% support from presumptive voters.
In August’s new polling data, Porter’s support has bumped up to 18%, but still a far cry from the 49% support Harris received from registered Democrats.
Porter leads among voters over 50 years old (22%), those with postgraduate degrees (35%), and white voters (23%), according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Porter’s 18% is more than three times as much as the nearest Democrat contender, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The 72-year-old Villaraigosa has held positions in the Obama administration and was previously the speaker of the California State Assembly, but he has not held elected office since 2013.
Villaraigosa is polling at around 5% in August, a stagnant figure from the April poll.
Former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, who previously served as California’s Attorney General from 2017 to 2021, is polling around 3%; Newsom’s second-in-command, current Lieutenant Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, also received around 3% of potential support.
Billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso, who has not formally announced any plans to seek the governorship, received 4% support by respondents if he were to hypothetically announce a bid.
Caruso founded a real estate company that bears his name and owns several luxury retail centers and mixed-use properties in the Los Angeles area, including the Grove and the Americana at Brand. Caruso was the runner-up to Karen Bass in L.A.’s most recent mayoral race.
Other candidates included former State Controller Betty Yee, former California Senate Pro Tempore Toni Atkins and current Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who are all polling around 2%, as is former CEO of Diamond Resorts Stephen Cloobeck.
On the Republican side of things, a new contender has entered the fray for California conservatives.
Former Fox News host and contributor Steve Hilton, a London-born politico who was a top advisor to Prime Minister David Cameron, sits atop the field of Republican candidates in the latest Emerson poll.
Hilton announced his candidacy in April and was not included in that month’s Nexstar poll. He now holds 12% potential support among voters as of the August poll.
An ardent supporter of President Donald Trump, Hilton has been endorsed by conservative political commentator Charlie Kirk, 2024 presidential candidate and former Department of Government Efficiency co-head Vivek Ramaswamy and others in the MAGA orbit.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who was the leading Republican candidate in April’s poll, received 7% support in August. While trailing Hilton, Bianco actually experienced a 3% bump among potential voters, pollsters found.
A Republican has not been elected governor in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003; a Republican hasn’t won any statewide race in California since his re-election in 2006.
Five percent of those polled said they supported someone else, while 38% said they were currently undecided, a smaller margin than the 54% of undecideds in the April poll.
The Emerson College poll also asked respondents about potential candidates for the White House in the 2028 race, with Newsom currently leading the field for the Democrats, and Vice President J.D. Vance the favorite for Republicans.
For additional information about the Emerson College poll, including methodology and other survey responses, click here.